Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
